Technical note: Low meteorological influence found in 2019 Amazonia fires

Abstract. The sudden increase in Amazon fires early the 2019 fire season made global headlines. While it has been heavily speculated that were caused by deliberate human ignitions or human-induced landscape changes, there have also suggestions meteorological conditions could played a role. Here, we ask two questions: unprecedented historical record, and did contribute to increased burning? To answer this, take advantage of recently developed modelling framework which optimises simple model against observations burnt area whose outputs are described as probability densities. This allowed us test occurring due alone. show was higher than previous years regions where is already substantial deforestation activity Amazon. Overall, 11 % recorded highest (June–August) since start our observational with areas Brazil's central arc recording ever monthly August. However, outside widespread less average, optimised shows this low would extended over much eastern region, including high occurrence 2019. We 9 likelihood observed August being alone, decreasing 6 %–7 along agricultural–humid forest interface states 8 Paraguay Bolivia dry forests. Our results suggest changes land use, cover management likely drivers area, especially Brazil. Burnt for September had 14 %–26 conditions, potentially coinciding shift fire-related policy from South American governments.